A few things though:
1. RIM needs to keep a lookout for the Nokia/Microsoft partnership even more so than the Android movement. Android’s growth is fueled by the whim of the customer….something no one can control forever however Nokia/Microsoft will be aiming at destroying even more of RIM’s current hold on the enterprise mobile market since that has always been Microsoft’s strength. RIM took the market away from Windows Mobile and you can be sure that Microsoft wants it back before the iPhone grabs that too.

2. Apple isn’t only strong because of their business management and a great phone device. They also make it simple for customers to purchase media to use on those devices and make it simple for developers to make money (though they also change their taxes on developers a lot). RIM started making a positive move with their Social Music initiative and I believe that they should continue to build on the features provided by BBM. It’s great that developers can now integrate their apps with BBM and also great that RIM is pushing even more that media can be shared via BBM. If RIM can manage to leverage that social network that is BBM….then they have a winner. Everyone already trusts it and is happy to use it. They only need to be educated on how they can use it in ways that benefit them beyond communications and also in ways that RIM can open up new streams of revenue for itself and developers.

3. RIM isn’t changing their OS as much as you make it seem. Blackberry OS 7 was a bit of a divergent path but it kept to the usual story of backwards compatibility though some aspects were broken. Webworks is a great initiative that must continue. Fortunately, RIM recently acquired the guys behind Ripple and the best thing they can do is not hold those guys back especially since it’s an opensource project now. Now that RIM has decided to shed Java due to their own concerns of it limiting the performance and developer-friendliness of BBX, then they need to double-down and either get it released WAY faster ie surprise everyone by holding an event and setting it up for sale within a month after said event (at latest by 2nd quarter) or do a similar promotion like they did for Playbook AND release GOOD and USEABLE development tools. They don’t need another PR disaster like Playbook which quite frankly was a great device eventhough it had crippling flaws.

Ultimately, as much as I like Android & am interested in Windows Phone, I think we consumers need RIM since their willingness to work with the carriers to provide affordable data packages is the reason why so many flocked to Blackberrys in the first place. Additionally, outside of Apple, they are the only persons who are working on the entire development (software and hardware) of their devices and are therefore best suited to innovate with a clear vision.

If RIM gets desperate then I’d suggest they work on a cheap Android-powered Blackberry Pearl but only if it’s used to drive third-world adoption and threshold testing of a BBM market or some sort.

Sajclarke, absolutely fabulous views! Thanks for taking the time…

Based on the points you have raised, it really highlights the fact that RIM has really lost its way… I have some additional thoughts, based on your comments:

1. “Know thyself and thy market” -> Another point to consider, re the growing shift to non-BB devices is the fact that businesses seem to be moving away from fully purchasing employee handsets. Some sort of cost sharing arrangement is becoming more the norm, hence the phone must also cater to the personal needs of employees. People want to do more on their handsets than just send emails; they want to take advantage of the wealth of services/apps that are now available (but not for the BB).

2. “Don’t rest on your laurels” -> I am not sure the iPhone will every become the mass consumer device like the BB. Its marketing and sales are tightly controlled – iPhones are still not supported in many Caribbean countries. Similar to the Mac, I have doubts that the iPhone will ever be ubiquitous. Perhaps that privilege will be enjoyed by an Android device – Samsung, perhaps?

4. “Consider sharing” -> I am quite concerned that RIM is continually changing its OS. Phones launched in October 2011 will not be supported when BBX is released next year (if it is released?). I don’t think that stance encourages people to upgrade their devices, however, I gather that RIM has been aggressively promoting the new phones, especially in the Caribbean and Latin America (See one of our earlier articles, Can BlackBerry hold on to its market share in the Caribbean?).

Further, since apps developed now will not work on the new platform, I would expect this to be quite demoralising to developers, especially since programming for the BB is still quite involved.

5. “Knowing when to call it a day” -> Your thoughts underscore that fact that RIM wants to be all things to all people, and not necessarily play to its strengths. Re the PlayBook, it really did not take tablet computing “to the next level”, and perhaps really showed RIM as just a follower and not an innovation leader.

Question: Do you think RIM can reverse its fortunes? Either way, what do you think it should do (to manage the situation)?

Still, I think that there is more to this than you’ve mentioned which don’t make the takeaways quite so cut-and-dry:

1. “Know thyself and thy market” -> Blackberry was actually in a very good spot when the iPhone came out in 2007 and remained there until 2009 when Android really started to gain momentum. The fact is that even today most people continue to recognize that Blackberry is the ultimate communicator and if they want to communicate on a manageable data/phone plan then Blackberry is the only way to go. In fact, it’s only recently that business executives are considering shifting away from Blackberry as an enterprise phone. These shifts are not only because Apple “revolutionized the market” but because the popularity of the iPhone continues to spread and so too does the popularity of Android. Still, it’s only a matter of time until companies realize that using the Blackberry is much less expensive than paying for data plans for various data-hungry iPhones/Androids. Forget the fact that their IT departments will need to figure out which of the enterprise management systems they should use to replace BES and struggle through the pains of adapting to its differences and constraints.

2. “Don’t rest on your laurels” –> It’s also important to note that the iPhone is actually not changing very much from year to year and many are speculating that the iPhone 5 HAS to be a radical change because right now, the Android devices are looking way better if you want something that stands out. Apple’s iPhone is currently the de facto for simplicity and “just working” but it’s still limited as a status symbol now.

4. “Consider sharing” –> It’s difficult to understand why most people forget that RIM released Webworks as a means of creating native apps using only html, css and javascript. This has been out for years and RIM opensourced the technology while continuing to improve it. This changed app development for Blackberry drastically but in this consumer-led market, few people are actually taking note of it and developers are following the buzz because frankly, investors feel a lot more confident investing in your business when you say it’s an iPhone/Android app than if you say it’s a Blackberry app. Of course, this is not to say that the BB Java development platform has gotten any better. In fact, it hasn’t and their API is even more convoluted. The main problem was and continues to be that the Blackberry support forums are lacking severely in activity and the online documentation is also lacking. This is likely due to the fact that RIM has been encouraging developers to join the paid versions of their Alliance memberships and hence, ignore the cries of those developers too cheap to pay.
However, ALOT of that changed in 2010-2011 when RIM removed almost every pay barrier to developing apps on Blackberry. There is no more fee for getting RIM signature keys and there is no more fee for submitting apps (you still need to pay to submit apps for iPhone/Android). Also, developers no longer need to sign-up on RIM’s website in order to download their tools. RIM has finally started to understand that they need to remove these barriers so developers can get started making the apps.
This doesn’t mean that the lack of apps situation will change soon. Just when developers were warming up to their calls of “developers make more money with Blackberry”, they announced that BBX will not only not run their java apps but will also be delayed until late 2012.

5. “Knowing when to call it a day” –> I think RIM made a huge mistake with the Playbook. It simply never should have been made. They should’ve focused on delivering the new OS as a Phone OS and not as a tablet OS. That confused users and placed the thoughts in everyone’s mind that RIM was just like everyone else who wanted to make an iPad alternative. The fact that the Playbook failed to sell wasn’t the only mistake either. RIM also promised all developers that they’d receive a free Playbook if they made a Playbook app however it was less of a promise and more of a challenge because the tools which were made available for creating said apps were HORRIBLE and led to developers openly complaining and boycotting further investments of their time and effort in Blackberry apps. Only a few Playbook apps were made and only because of the combined collaborative efforts of the community as well as some late action by RIM to provide some tutorials and tips…by which time, most developers were turned off already and were heading towards the highly active communities for iPhone/Android development.