Smartphones have experienced explosive growth over the past 10 years. However can it be sustained? Is the device on its way out?


The Apple iPhone 6S and 6S Plus; the Samsung Galaxy S7; the Sony Xperia Z5; the LG G5. These are some of the most coveted smartphones on the market today. However, by this time next year, most, if not all of them, will all be replaced by newer, and supposedly better, models.

Over the past seven to ten years, more manufacturers have entered the market, resulting in stiff competition for market share, and product release cycles getting shorter to drive continued sales. However, thanks to this wave of competition and innovation, smartphones have transformed how we live and do business. Further, devices are available at a broad range of price points, thus widening the pool of ownership to around 2.6 billion worldwide in 2014, or 36% of the world’s population. By 2020, 70% of the world’s population, or 6.1 billion people will use a smartphone.

However, although smartphone take-up is projected to grow considerably in the coming years, there is a concern that the bottom may already be falling out of the market. Here, we highlight some signs that suggest that the smartphone may already be becoming obsolete.

Innovation has slowed down

Although we, as consumers, might still get excited when a new flagship smartphone is released, experts and techies alike have observed that the most recent releases now tend to just have incremental improvements over previous versions. Further, and almost similar to the automobile, increasingly, the popular smartphones have similar design and features, and are becoming indistinguishable from each other.

Having said this, it could be argued that there is still considerable room for smartphones to be improved, for example, to have better battery life, to charge faster, and to take even better pictures. However, these improvements will not fundamentally change the device, but merely refine the existing and accepted functionality and aesthetic construct.  

Market seems to be reaching saturation point in developed countries

As stated above, by 2020 smartphone ownership is expected to double, with much of that growth in developing countries. According to a report released by Ericsson last year, “[a]lmost 80% of smartphone subscriptions added during 2015–2020 will be from Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa”. It thus means that the customer base for smartphones in developed countries is already close to saturation.

While into the foreseeable future. smartphone manufacturers may seek to focus on developing countries to drive sales and profits, it is the posture of developed countries – their customers, investors and pundits – that to dictates what occurs in the global industry. Though it might take a few years to permeate worldwide, inevitably, those decisions can make or break a device and its manufacturer, as recently occurred with the BlackBerry.

Further, in addition to marginal growth projected in developed countries into the foreseeable future, the slowdown of innovation has affected the frequency with which customers change their smartphones. Essentially, in developed countries the euphoria around the release of new smartphones has begun to die, and customers are beginning to get bored.

Internet of things gaining traction

Finally, although the concept may still seem theoretical, increasingly the Internet of things is becoming more integrated and evident in our lives. Today, most appliances and devices are smart, meaning that possess have some computing technology, they can communicate with users, and can be integrated into a wider computerised system or network.

Hence, with regard to smartphones, the imperative for that device to do a number of things exceptionally well – such take photographs, tell the time, manage our health, to name a few – is eroding. Increasingly, the smartphone is not being seen as a replacement for having certain standalone devices, but rather a convenient substitute. For example, the fact that one can have a good quality, yet budget friendly, camera that has better features and functionality than the typical smartphone, and it can be connected directly to the Internet, and even to specific social networks, means those standalone devices are stepping up their game, to earn their place in the market.

Parting thoughts

As reflected in the above discourse, smartphones are still yet to reach critical mass globally. However, it is beginning to become evident that the evolution of the device has slowed considerably over the past three to five years. While it may not yet be device for the archives – like the floppy disk, or the betamax video cassette player – its prominence and context in our lives is changing, as everything around us also becomes smart. Ultimately, and at the very least, the smartphone will be one in a sea of devices that we will not only need to manage, but also interface.

 

Image credit:  Fairphone (flickr)

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